"Do not pray for this people; and do not lift up a cry or prayer for them. For I will not hear in the time they cry to Me for their trouble. " Jer 11:14
"When you spread out your hands, I will hide My eyes from you. Yes, when you multiply prayer, I will not hear. Your hands are full of blood. Wash yourselves, purify yourselves. Put away the evil of your doings from My sight; stop doing evil. Learn to do good, seek justice, reprove the oppressor, judge the orphan, strive for the widow. Come now and let us reason together, says YHWH: Though your sins are as scarlet, they shall be white as snow; though they are red as crimson, they shall be like wool. If you are willing and hear, you shall eat the good of the land. But if you refuse and rebel, you shall be devoured with the sword; for the mouth of YHWH has spoken." Is 1:15-20
"I spoke to you in your prosperity; but you said, I will not hear. This has been your manner from your youth, that you obeyed not my voice. " Jer 22:21
"He that covers his sins shall not prosper: but whoever confesses and forsakes them shall have mercy. " Pr 28:13
Many have asked how I knew all this was going to happen, how I predicted America's malaise. I DIDN'T predict it, I just believed YHWH's Word. I read the script. My heart cries out for America, my family, friends and others. I don't wish this for myself or anyone. No one would relish such difficult times & suffering. But, we brought this upon ourselves. I cannot say how terrible things may get, I really don't want to dwell on it. America has never been so distant from God, or abhorrent to the Gospel of Christ.
There is only one Savior, only one recourse; Yeshua the Messiah, the Word of God made flesh. Repent & Believe Him.
_____________________NEWS______________
Recession worst since 1940's
Despite months of rescue efforts, hundreds of billions of dollars in government spending and an avant-garde apparatus of financial tools, the American economy has only worsened, and at a faster rate than nearly anyone predicted.
This recession, which officially began in December 2007, now appears virtually certain to be the longest downturn — and possibly most severe — since the end of World War II, as evidenced last week by a demoralizing rat-a-tat of grim reports on jobs, sales and public confidence.
The reports signaled that even after 11 months, more than the entire length of the last two downturns, this recession has only now entered its fiercest phase, and economists say the pain will not end soon.
“For the average American it’s going to be devastating for the next 6 to 12 months,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group, a research and forecasting firm. He added, “I have not seen anything particularly hopeful right now, which tells me we have a ways to go.”
In an appearance Sunday on “Meet the Press,” President-elect Barack Obama promised a stimulus plan “large enough to get the economy moving,” but conceded that “things are going to get worse before they get better.”
Some analysts had hoped the worst was over after October’s market shocks, which spooked consumers and choked off credit.
Instead, Americans retrenched even further in November, sending sales at the nation’s retailers tumbling to the weakest level in more than 35 years and leading the Detroit automakers to record their worst sales in a quarter-century. Manufacturers have not seen conditions this bad since 1982.
The decline in spending is likely to continue, depriving the economy of its primary growth engine, as layoffs continue to mount. Half a million Americans, from financial analysts to factory workers, were dismissed in November alone. Rarely has a labor downturn affected such a broad swath of income levels.
Most frightening of all is that the worst job losses may be yet to come. If history is any guide, millions more Americans could lose their jobs before businesses start to expand again.
The worst jolts to the labor market tend to be only the precursor of six months or more of additional layoffs. Employment suffered a major contraction in December 1981 and January 1982, and workers did not see a stable market for about 10 months, including another big round of layoffs in July 1982.
A similar pattern occurred in the other great postwar recession, in 1974, when several months of a stagnant labor market were followed by a violent contraction over the new year. After the worst month, December 1974, the job market took about six more months to stabilize.
So in the best case — where November’s 533,000 lost jobs signals the bottom of the labor market contraction — workers could face six more months or so of hard times.
“We’ll be lucky if the unemployment rate is below double digits by the end of next year,” said Jared Bernstein, who will be the chief economic adviser to Vice President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. “Even if the economy improves, the growth won’t be enough to rehire laid-off workers, much less absorb those coming into the labor force.”
There is no guarantee, of course, that November’s numbers will be the worst of the current round of layoffs. Even before Lehman Brothers collapsed, employers were on the defensive, cutting more than 400,000 jobs after Labor Day.
Now that the full magnitude of the financial crisis is apparent, companies are tightening their belts further. Just last week, AT&T, Credit Suisse, DuPont and Viacom announced deep cuts. Layoffs are expected in the financial and automotive industries after the new year.
“This current environment requires action, and that’s what we’re doing,” said Mohammed Nakhooda, a spokesman for Nortel Networks, the maker of telecommunications equipment, which has lost business this fall from large corporate clients cutting costs.
Nortel, based in Toronto, said it would cut about 1,300 jobs, or 5 percent of its work force, including some at its United States operations. It will also begin a hiring freeze and cut back on employee travel.
“It’s tough but it’s necessary,” Mr. Nakhooda said. “The business environment has obviously changed pretty drastically over a short period of time.”
Some economists predict that the economy could lose as many jobs in the first six months of 2009 as the entirety of 2008. Nearly two million jobs have been lost since the start of the recession last year, two-thirds of them since September. Still, some forecasters say the pessimistic talk may be overblown, and possibly a problem in itself.
“The numbers are giving us a darker view than is actually the case,” said Chris Varvares, president of Macroeconomic Advisors, a research firm, adding that some of the economic indicators that have been flashing red are based on subjective surveys of businesses and households.
“There is such a thing as self-fulfilling prophecy,” he said.
Americans who are lucky enough to still collect a paycheck are likely to save more, cut back on luxury items and restaurants, and channel more of their income into savings accounts for college and retirement.
“Even Americans who still have a job are looking around and saying, ‘Well, you know, how much longer?’ ” said Joshua Shapiro, chief domestic economist at MFR, a research firm.
All of this is likely to make many people hesitant to invest any money they do have. Many Americans chose to save over the last two decades by investing in stocks and real estate. Now, the jar-in-the-kitchen approach may return, analysts said.
“It is quite conceivable — many would say probable — that the severe asset price collapses that have occurred in both equity and real estate will prompt a lasting increase in the desired saving rate, at least on the part of many consumers,” Ed McKelvey, an economist at Goldman Sachs, wrote in a note last week.
Those who benefit from the downturn could be those still willing to take a trip to the mall, where they will find deep discounts on a range of products. First-time home buyers may also find deals, as long as they can obtain a mortgage — no easy task in a time of tight credit.
Many economists pointed to government stimulus as the way out of the economic mess, and they applauded the federal government’s announcement that it might try to drive down interest rates on mortgages to 4.5 percent, about one percentage point lower than current rates.
A major stimulus package is also expected to be announced in January or February, soon after Mr. Obama takes office. Economists hope the package will create jobs and stimulate spending, and many predict that economic growth will improve slightly after this quarter with the federal help.
In an address taped for broadcast Saturday morning on radio and YouTube, Mr. Obama committed to the largest public works program since the creation of the interstate highway system a half century ago. “We need action — and action now,” he said.
Still, analysts said that government assistance would probably not result in a full recovery by May, which would signify the 16-month point of the recession. That would match the record for the longest postwar recession, set in 1975 and reached again in 1982.
“Up until mid-September, a plausible scenario was that it would be a short and shallow recession,” said Edward Yardeni, the investment strategist. “After mid-September, it became quite obvious that that was wishful thinking.”
Those losses brought the national unemployment rate to 6.7%, marking the highest reading since October 1993.
The reading was 6.5% in October.
Economists surveyed by Briefing.com Inc. of Chicago had estimated that 335,000 job would be lost, while they expected the unemployment rate to be 6.8%.
The November job losses were the largest since December 1974, when the economy let go of 602,000 jobs.
Additionally, October's job losses were revised upward to 320,000, compared to the loss of 240,000 jobs originally reported.
September's job losses were revised upward to 403,000 from the 284,000 originally reported.
The economy has lost 1.9 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, including 1.26 million jobs during the past three months.
The number of unemployed people now stands at 10.3 million.
“The loss of jobs is sobering and if you add it to the significant revisions for September and October unemployment rates, it is evidence of a severe economic contraction,” said Robert Dye, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh.
“We are still in for many months of significant job losses.”
Looking ahead, he expects the unemployment rate to be 7.5% by the end of the first quarter of 2009.
Nearly two-thirds of the losses came in the service-providing sector, which shed 370,000 jobs in November.
Goods-producing industries let go of 163,000 jobs, which included 85,000 job losses in the manufacturing sector.
Construction employment was down 82,000.
On a bright note, the health care and education sectors added 52,000 jobs and the government added 7,000 positions.
The length of the workweek fell to 33.5 hours, marking the shortest workweek since 1964.
Hourly earnings increased 7 cents, or 0.4%, to $18.30 per hour.
US, Europe, Japan economic gloom deepens
HONG KONG/LONDON (Reuters) – Japan sank further into recession in the third quarter and Europe produced horrific economic indicators that showed a global downturn is deepening.
A newspaper said Japan was considering $216 billion in new stimulus spending, around 3.6 percent of Gross Domestic Product, to boost its economy.
EU countries have announced stimulus measures totaling 200 billion euros ($260 billion), but the data suggested more action might be needed, at least in the form of interest rate cuts.
British industrial output fell at its sharpest pace in nearly six years in October, and revisions to previous months' data suggested the economy might have contracted even faster in the third quarter than initially thought.
France reported a record trade deficit that reflected a Europe-wide slowdown, and in Germany, the continent's economic engine, a sentiment index suggested the economy was sliding deeper into recession.
Technology firms worldwide were among those feeling the pain -- Japanese electronics maker Sony Corp said it would cut 8,000 jobs, or 5 percent of its workforce, as part of restructuring efforts to save $1.1 billion in costs.
Despite the bad news, stock markets mostly hung onto Monday's hefty gains of up to seven percent.
GLOOMY DATA
Japan's economy shrank 0.5 percent in the third quarter, worse than a preliminary reading of 0.1 percent, according to latest data. This put the world's second-largest economy on track for its longest contraction ever.
The Yomiuri newspaper reported, without citing sources, that the government was considering an economic package including spending of up to 20 trillion yen ($216 billion).
"We need to make every effort to expand domestic demand," Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano told a news conference.
In China, a central bank adviser said November exports might be down from a year earlier, and growth in industrial output could have slowed markedly.
British industrial output fell 1.7 percent on the month, the biggest fall since January 2003, and 5.2 percent year-on-year, the steepest drop since April 1991.
"Industrial production data, particularly manufacturing output, is a horror story," said Philip Shaw at Investec. "... If anything, the pace of contraction appears to be worsening."
He and others expected the key Bank of England interest rate, now at 2 percent, to be cut to near zero next year.
German analyst and investor views on prospects for Europe's biggest economy unexpectedly improved, albeit at a low level.
The ZEW think tank's widely watched monthly poll of economic sentiment rose to -45.2 from -53.5 in November.
A ZEW economist said the rise should not be overinterpreted, and most respondents foresaw rate cuts from the European Central Bank as the German economy only began to recover in mid-2009.
France reported a record trade deficit.
"We're seeing a huge loss of momentum there and that's true across the region," said Jacques Cailloux, economist at Royal Bank of Scotland.
Despite the depth of Europe's problems, divisions have emerged over how to tackle the crisis.
Germany has taken a less aggressive approach to fiscal spending than others, and Chancellor Angela Merkel was not invited to a discussion of stimulus measures on Monday between French President Nicolas Sarkozy and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown.
European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet appeared to argue for a more conservative line, telling Britain's BBC on Tuesday: "If you augment too much your own borrowing, you might be punished by markets."
His ECB Council colleague Erkki Liikanen told reporters: "The outlook for the global economy has deteriorated exceptionally quickly. Economic policy can soften the downturn, but it cannot prevent it."
TECHNOLOGY SECTOR SUFFERS
Sony said that, apart from cutting 8,000 jobs, it would quit unprofitable businesses and cut or delay investments.
"The number sounds big, but this staff reduction won't be enough. Sony doesn't have any core businesses that generate stable profits," said Katsuhiko Mori, fund manager at Daiwa SB.
Technology firms are suffering elsewhere too.
U.S. chip makers Texas Instruments Inc and National Semiconductor Corp slashed current-quarter revenue forecasts on Monday as demand for cell phone and analog chips came to a virtual standstill.
South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co Ltd, the biggest maker of memory chips and liquid crystal displays, cut targets for sales, capital expenditure and profit.
In the auto sector, Japan's Mitsubishi Motors Corp said it would halt production at a plant in Illinois for seven weeks next year, while Nissan Motor Co delayed plans for full production at a new plant in India with its partner Renault SA.
In Washington, the White House and the Democratic majority in Congress were to continue talks on a loan package estimated to be worth up to $15 billion to the big U.S. carmakers, General Motors Corp, Chrysler LLC and Ford Motor Co.
The industry employs 350,000 people directly and supports millions more, but the administration says any plan must include efforts to ensure that taxpayer dollars are paid back and that the automakers are able to reorganize and compete.
"Viability means that all aspects of the companies need to be re-examined to make sure that they can survive in the long term," President George W. Bush told ABC News' 'Nightline'.
Democratic President-elect Barack Obama is seen as keener to support the sector, and Congressional Democrats said they were confident a deal could be reached.
Banks, too, are still struggling to bolster their balance sheets to combat the effects of a year-long credit crunch.
Australia's number two lender, Westpac, said it was raising $1.7 billion through a share sale.
________________________________Census: For many, economy was sour before current crisis
Census data show that throughout the first half of the decade, the slumping economy touched nearly every community in the country. Incomes dropped while poverty and unemployment rose in the vast majority of the nation's cities and towns.
Small and medium-size cities in the Midwest, already suffering from an ailing auto industry, were hit the hardest, with unemployment rates doubling or tripling in communities throughout Michigan, Ohio, Indiana and Illinois.
The numbers weren't as bad in other parts of country, but no region was spared, with incomes dropping as home prices escalated. The result: an unsustainable housing market that ultimately fueled the current economic crisis.
"For a while we were on a binge of living beyond our means," said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard and Poor's, the credit rating service. "We were financing our spending habits by treating houses like giant ATMs."
The data, which is being released Tuesday, are the first detailed economic, social and demographic information for small- and medium-size cities since the 2000 census. It was collected over three years, from 2005 through 2007, providing a mid-decade snapshot of every community with at least 20,000 residents.
The data come from the American Community Survey. Census takers interview 3 million households a year for the survey, which produces annual data for geographical areas with populations of 65,000 or more. For areas with at least 20,000 people, the survey produces three-year averages.
The numbers explain why the housing bubble burst and why the economy was such a big issue in this year's presidential campaign. They also explain why voters soured so much on President Bush's handling of the economy, even before the current financial crisis.
The years covered by the report include the housing market at its peak. Incomes had started to rise while poverty and unemployment rates had begun to fall, following the recession earlier in the decade.
But in the vast majority of America's cities and towns, economic conditions never fully reached the prosperity that marked the beginning of the decade.
The Associated Press analyzed economic data from the 2,000 or so cities and towns across the nation with populations of 20,000 or more, comparing the 2005-2007 data to figures from the 2000 census.
Among the findings:
• Median household income dropped in 77% of the cities and towns. Incomes dropped in the wealthiest communities as well as the poorest. Charleston, Ill., home to Eastern Illinois University, saw the biggest drop — 31% — to a median household income of just under $21,000.
Nationally, incomes dropped 4.3% during the period, to $50,007.
• The poverty rate increased in 70% of the cities and towns. Athens, Ohio, home to Ohio University, had the highest poverty rate, at 52.3%, in the 2005-2007 period.
Nationally, the poverty rate increased from 12.4% to 13.3% since the start of the decade.
• The unemployment rate increased in 71% of the cities and towns. Muskegon, Mich., a city of about 40,000 near Lake Michigan, had the highest unemployment rate, at 22.1%.
Nationally, the unemployment rate increased from about 4% in 2000 to 6.6% in the 2005-2007 period.
• Median home values increased in 92% of the cities and towns studied — doubling and tripling in many cities, mainly in California. Nationally, the median home value increased 26%, to $181,800.
It's not surprising that many communities were doing better in 2000 than they were mid-decade, said Scott Hoyt, senior director of consumer economics at Moody's Economy.com.
"The year 2000 was at the end of an incredible boom that lasted a decade," Hoyt said.
Incomes were up, unemployment was down and the dot-com bubble had not yet burst on Wall Street.
"We just didn't have enough years of expansion" this decade, he said.
___________________________
Washington Takes Risks With Its Auto Bailout Plans
WASHINGTON — When President-elect Barack Obama talked on Sunday about realigning the American automobile industry he was quick to offer a caution, lest he sound more like the incoming leader of France, or perhaps Japan.
“We don’t want government to run companies,” Mr. Obama told Tom Brokaw on “Meet the Press.” “Generally, government historically hasn’t done that very well.”
But what Mr. Obama went on to describe was a long-term bailout that would be conditioned on federal oversight. It could mean that the government would mandate, or at least heavily influence, what kind of cars companies make, what mileage and environmental standards they must meet and what large investments they are permitted to make — to recreate an industry that Mr. Obama said “actually works, that actually functions.”
It all sounds perilously close to a word that no one in Mr. Obama’s camp wants to be caught uttering: nationalization.
Not since Harry Truman seized America’s steel mills in 1952 rather than allow a strike to imperil the conduct of the Korean War has Washington toyed with nationalization, or its functional equivalent, on this kind of scale. Mr. Obama may be thinking what Mr. Truman told his staff: “The president has the power to keep the country from going to hell.” (The Supreme Court thought differently and forced Mr. Truman to relinquish control.)
The fact that there is so little protest in the air now — certainly less than Mr. Truman heard — reflects the desperation of the moment. But it is a strategy fraught with risks.
The first, of course, is the one the president-elect himself highlighted. Government’s record as a corporate manager is miserable, which is why the world has been on a three-decade-long privatization kick, turning national railroads, national airlines and national defense industries into private companies.
The second risk is that if the effort fails, and the American car companies collapse or are auctioned off in pieces to foreign competitors, taxpayers may lose the billions about to be spent.
And the third risk — one barely discussed so far — is that in trying to save the nation’s carmakers, the United States is violating at least the spirit of what it has preached around the world for two decades. The United States has demanded that nations treat American companies on their soil the same way they treat their home-grown industries, a concept called “national treatment.”
Yet so far, there is no talk of offering aid to Toyota, Honda, BMW or the other foreign automakers that have built factories on American soil, employed American workers and managed to make a profit doing so.
“If Japan was doing this, we’d be threatening billions of dollars in retaliation,” said Jeffrey Garten, a professor at the Yale School of Management, who as under secretary of commerce in the 1990s was one of many government officials who tried in vain to get Detroit prepared for a world of international competition. “In fact, when they did something a lot more subtle, we threatened exactly that,” referring to calls for import restrictions.
Mr. Garten said he was stunned by the scope of the intervention that Washington was now considering. “I don’t know that we’ve seen anything like this since the government told the automakers what kind of tanks to make during World War II,” he said. “And that was just for the duration of the war — this could be for much, much longer.”
It is hard to measure just what kind of chances Mr. Obama may be taking with this plan, in part because so many parts of it are still in motion.
In the short term, Democrats are floating the idea of linking $15 billion in immediate loans to the designation of a “car czar” who, in doling out the money, could require or veto big transactions or investments — essentially a one-man board of directors. The White House indicates that President Bush, who has spent his entire presidency proclaiming that the government’s role is to create an environment that spurs free enterprise and minimizes government regulation, would very likely sign the rescue plan.
The first $15 billion and the car czar who oversees it, however, are only the beginning. “After that, we’re in uncharted water,” said Malcolm S. Salter, a professor emeritus at Harvard Business School who has studied the auto industry for two decades and, until a few years ago, was an adviser to General Motors and Ford. “Think about this: Who in the federal government would have the tremendous insight needed to fix this industry?”
Depending on how the longer-term revamping of the industry proceeds, Washington could become a major shareholder in the Big Three, it could provide loans, or, in one course that Mr. Obama seemed to hint at on Sunday, it could organize what amounts to a “structured bankruptcy.” In that case, the government would convene the creditors, the unions, the shareholders and the company’s management, and apportion a share of the hit to each of them. If that “consensus building” sounds a lot like the role of the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry in the 1970s and the 1980s, well, it is.
To promote the Japanese car industry on the way up, the trade ministry nudged companies toward consolidation, and even tried to mandate which parts of the market each could go into. (Soichiro Honda, the founder of the company, rebelled when bureaucrats told him he was supposed to limit himself to making motorcycles.) By the 1980s, Congress was denouncing this as “industrial policy,” and arguing that it put American makers at a competitive disadvantage — and polluted free enterprise.
Now, it is Congress doing exactly that, but this time as emergency surgery. Other nations will doubtless complain, or begin doing the same for their own companies. “We’re at this moment in history, in which the Chinese are touting that their system is better than ours” with their mix of capitalism and state control, said Mr. Garten, who has long experience in Asia. “And our response, it looks like, is to begin replicating what they’ve been doing.”_____________________________
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